Forecaster this Winter
				
Posted: 
Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:30 am 
				by Kenny
				Due to increased work demands, I will not be in a position to do the winter forecast this year.  We need a volunteer (or two) to step up and take my place.  Some of you have gotten very good at predicting the wind for a given location, so one option might be to have a forecast for Skyline from one person and one for Strawberry from another (Strawberry on anything other than a north wind is a crap shoot anyway).
I would be happy to share the information that I used to base my forecasts in the past with anyone that would like to take over the daily winter forecast.
Kenny
			 
			
				Re: Forecaster this Winter
				
Posted: 
Sun Nov 03, 2013 1:55 pm 
				by Kenny
				No Volunteers?  I don't blame you.  I have a deep gratitude to Craig for his many years of forecasting.  As I stated in my previous post, I will not be able to do the forecast on a regular basis.  However, if no one steps forward, I will do it for the weekends and holidays.  
Since I will not be posting every day, I will give all of you a brief snapshot of what I look at to do a forecast.
I look at the point forecast for multiple locations.  You start to get a feel for when the forecasters are confident and when they are just rolling the magic 8 ball, so don't take the forecast as gospel, use it as a guide.
I check the winds aloft for SLC.  Keep in mind that Strawberry is around 7,000 feet and Skyline is around 9,000.
I check the iwindsurf model tables and wind vector forecasts.
I check the wind meters and webcams near and around Skyline and Strawberry.  Some of the nearby meters can be used as a guide.  
I review the wind log.  I look for patterns.  After a while you start to get a feel for it.  My final advice is the best forecast you can make is to check the conditions immediately before you go.  I know that is not always convenient, but that is the way it is.  Weather is uncertain.
I wish all of you a great winter of riding!
Kenny