Forecaster this Winter

[Kenny]

Due to increased work demands, I will not be in a position to do the winter forecast this year. We need a volunteer (or two) to step up and take my place. Some of you have gotten very good at predicting the wind for a given location, so one option might be to have a forecast for Skyline from one person and one for Strawberry from another (Strawberry on anything other than a north wind is a crap shoot anyway).

I would be happy to share the information that I used to base my forecasts in the past with anyone that would like to take over the daily winter forecast.

Kenny

[Kenny]

No Volunteers? I don't blame you. I have a deep gratitude to Craig for his many years of forecasting. As I stated in my previous post, I will not be able to do the forecast on a regular basis. However, if no one steps forward, I will do it for the weekends and holidays.

Since I will not be posting every day, I will give all of you a brief snapshot of what I look at to do a forecast.

I look at the point forecast for multiple locations. You start to get a feel for when the forecasters are confident and when they are just rolling the magic 8 ball, so don't take the forecast as gospel, use it as a guide.

I check the winds aloft for SLC. Keep in mind that Strawberry is around 7,000 feet and Skyline is around 9,000.
I check the iwindsurf model tables and wind vector forecasts.

I check the wind meters and webcams near and around Skyline and Strawberry. Some of the nearby meters can be used as a guide.

I review the wind log. I look for patterns. After a while you start to get a feel for it. My final advice is the best forecast you can make is to check the conditions immediately before you go. I know that is not always convenient, but that is the way it is. Weather is uncertain.

I wish all of you a great winter of riding!

Kenny